Thursday, November 17, 2011

Is the Offense Going to be Better Next Year?

The Giants seem to think that all they need to do to improve the worst offense in the National League is to trade for Melky Cabrera and get Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez back after suffering injuries.

Well with the Bill James Projections being published it seems like a good time to see what these projections say about what we can expect for the Giants next season.

So using the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings I will take what a full season of last year's offense would project to and compare in to a lineup using the Bill James projections for this year. I figure that should give us somewhat of a apples to apples kind of comparison.

Last years team projected to a 3.74 runs per game which would be about 606 runs over a whole season (also it would be about 40 runs better than what the Giants actually managed!). With the addition of Cabrera and getting Posy and Sanchez back (but losing Carlos Beltran) the Giants project to 4.39 runs per game which comes out to about 711 runs over a whole season.

So it looks like this strategy of hoping for a healthy Sanchez and Posey to save the offense could work in theory but man there just seems to be so many risks associated with this and it could lead to another year of dreaded offense.

For one the Bill James projection are known to rather optimistic with the offensive projections which means that some of these projections are much higher than what will likely happen. In addition this is still the Giants so Brandon Belt actually starting and getting 150 games is no guarantee. Last but not least there is also the guys coming back from injuries that may bounce back so easy to what many are expecting.

I would love to see another high quality hitter in the Giants lineup but I doubt that is in the cards so I guess we all need to cross our fingers and hope that everything breaks right so the team can have a league average offense!

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