What's the matter with Ryan Vogelsong?

Ryan Vogelsong has not gotten off to a great start and it lead me to take a look at what has and has not been different with him this season compared to previously with the Giants.

I looked into the statistics and I think for the most part he has been a victim of bad luck.

Here is what I wrote for Bay Area Sports Guy:

When you look at the peripheral numbers things really haven’t changed all that much; in 2011 he struck out 18.5% of the batters he faced while walking 8.1%, last year he struck out 20.1% while walking 7.9%, and so far this season he has struck out 18.8% while walking 7.5%.

For the most part he is striking out and walking about the same number of people. That’s good news for Vogelsong as we go forward.

If we switch and take a look at his batted ball data, courtesy of Fangraphs:

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%
2011	Giants	1.34	20.40%	45.60%	34.00%	9.30%	8.20%	7.00%	16.70%
2012	Giants	1.14	18.50%	43.50%	38.00%	11.10%	8.20%	6.70%	7.70%
2013	Giants	1.14	20.00%	42.60%	37.40%	7.00%	18.60%	6.10%	0.00%
Total	- – -	1.11	20.90%	41.60%	37.60%	11.30%	8.90%	6.90%	11.50%

Things look mostly the same over the last three seasons.

• A few less ground balls this year than the previous two, but nothing drastic.
• A slightly higher line drive rate, but still lower than his excellent 2011 season.
• The flyball rate is right in between the last two years.
• His infield fly ball rate is lower, but not significantly so.

The big difference is that the number of balls that have gone over the fence per flyball is much higher than the last two seasons and well above his career rate.

If we look further into the balls that have been put into play against Vogelsong, we see that currently 35% are falling in for hits. The number of balls in play that turn into hits is not something that is fully in the control of the pitcher and tends to hover around 30%. If we again take a look at the mix of balls that Vogelsong has given up you would expect that only 29.8% of the balls in play would have fallen in for hits with an average defense behind him.

Going forward I wouldn’t expect him to continue to give up home runs and fly balls like every hitter he faced was David Ortiz. Nor would I expect him to continue to allow 35% of balls in play to fall into hits, especially not with the Giants posting the highest ultimate zone rating in baseball right now.

Check out the full thing.

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Brandon Belt discusses swing mechanics with Keith Law

Brandon Belt is one of my favorite Giants players.

Keith Law is one of my favorite baseball writers.

Having said that, when I saw that they sat down for a lunch interview to discuss Belt's swing mechanics it made me very excited to read what would come of the meeting.

I was not disappointed.

The full interview requires ESPN Insider so I will only include a few snippets.

Belt first emerged as a prospect in 2010, racing through three levels of the minors and finishing the year by ripping up the Arizona Fall League, a time when his swing was very balanced and he kept his weight back consistently enough to be able to hit left-handed pitching and handle fastballs inside. Keeping his weight back -- which means waiting to transfer his weight to his front leg until he gets his hands moving forward -- has turned out to be the biggest challenge for Belt in translating his minor league success into major league performance. It was a problem for him at the end of 2012 and carried over into spring training and the start of 2013.

"I was real off balance, I don't know what the reason for that was, maybe I had crossed that line again," Belt said Tuesday. "I was lunging at the ball. They wanted me to stay back, and the thing that happened right there is that [Bruce Bochy] told me what they saw, and they let me fix it. I think that's what helped out a lot. Sometimes [the coaches] are all saying the same thing but saying it in different ways, then one person says it and it clicks in my head."

-snip- 

After the Giants benched Belt on April 21, he ran off a nine-game stretch in which he hit .357 with all three of his homers on the season, one of which came on a 95 mph David Hernandez fastball on the inner half. He was keeping his weight back, which allows him to get to fastballs on time and to "keep rotating," using his hips to create torque that leads to power, whether he's trying to pull the ball or to drive something out to left-center. In short, he looked like the player I predicted would be an above-average regular at first base. On the flip side, Belt is just 1-for-15 thus far in May, which shows how fickle mechanics can be and that he still isn't completely locked in on his swing.

If you have insider you should read the whole thing, if you don't it is worth considering getting insider just to get the Law articles not to mention the other great baseball (not to mention the other sports) content.

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Giants' prospect Chris Stratton off to a nice start

Giants' pitching prospects Chris Stratton has gotten off to a hot start in A ball. In three starts he has been dominate allowing less than one base runner per inning, striking out 26% of the batters he has faced and keeping the ball in the park.

This is excellent news after he was sidelined at the end of last season and could force the Giants to promote him quickly, at the start of the season I expected him to start in High-A San Jose but the Giants took the safer route which makes sense giving his limited professional experience.

Even better here is a nice quick report from Baseball Prospectus on his early season success:

A first-round pick of the Giants last year, Stratton’s professional debut was cut short when he suffered a concussion after being struck in the head by a batting practice line drive. His injury forced him out for the remainder of the season and the Giants’ Instructional League, causing him to slide a little under the radar as members of his draft class posted impressive numbers and made names for themselves during his absence.

With a blazing start to the 2013 season, Stratton may not fly under the radar much longer. Stratton has a 1.08 ERA in three starts at Low-A and he could be forcing the typically slow-moving Giants to promote him to High-A in the first half. Stratton’s total package isn’t sexy, featuring two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, two average pitches in his curveball and changeup, and plus command projection.

What Stratton does well is sequence pitches, change sight lines and avoid the fat part of the bat. As a member of a Giants organization that has an apparent knack for successfully developing highly drafted pitching prospects, Stratton’s future could be as bright as the start to his first full season.

I had him rated as my number two prospect to start the season and so far he has only shown that it was wise to rate him highly. I hope that he continues to impress, the Giants could certainly use more high ceiling starting pitching depth.

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Series Preview: Giants vs. Cardinals

The Giants were able to take two out of three from the Dodgers to kick off the season. Ruining their opening series and perhaps putting a touch of doubt in the minds of fans after all the money that was spent to build the team.

Now the Giants come home and look to avoid suffering the same fate against the Cardinals.

In what will be a weekend long celebration with a flag raising, an MVP ceremony for Buster Posey and finally the ring ceremony, it might be difficult for the team to focus on the games at hand. I imagine the  Cardinals won't have nearly the trouble, looking to get some revenge for the NLCS.

So let's take a look at the series.

In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:

• I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense and each team’s offense.
• The data used in the projection model is based on the current season’s statistics to date and ZiPS projections, with the weighting shifting more toward the actual stats as the season progresses. To start the season it is based entirely on ZiPS projections put into the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings.
• The estimated run differential is then converted into a projected winning percentage using the pythagorean expectation.
• Then, it’s converted into an odds of winning the game using the log5 method developed by Bill James

Probables (Via MLB.com):

Friday, April 5, 1:35 PM: Barry Zito vs. Jake Westbrook

Saturday, April 6, 1:05 PM: Ryan Vogelsong vs. Shelby Miller

Sunday, April 7, 1:05 PM: Matt Cain vs. Adam Wainwright

Odds:

	Giants	Cardinals
Game 1	57%	43%
Game 2	52%	48%
Game 3	50%	50%
Sweep	15%	10%
2 out 3	40%	35%
1 out 3	35%	40%
0 out 3	10%	15%
Win Series	54%	46%
Lose Series	46%	54%

The Giants are slight favorites in the series according to the model, but I doubt that they will be easy games. The Cardinals are a very good team and I am always nervous when the Giants matchup against them.

I was a little surprised Game 1 gave the Giants the best odds but for the first time in what seems like ages Zito wasn't destroyed by the projection systems. Hopefully he still has some magic left in the tank and has the big curveball working.

It will be nice to have three straight day games as well. I wonder when the last time that happened was?

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