Friday, November 30, 2012

Brian Wilson non tendered

As expected Brian Wilson was not tendered a contract at tonight's deadline. He is a free agent.

It's possible he could still come back to the Giants but the reports seemed to indicate the team and Wilson were quite far apart on how much they valued the relief pitcher's services.

Coming off his second Tommy John Surgery it makes sense that the Giants would be cautious. If some other team wants to take on that risk, well best of luck.

Regardless of what you think of the character he became, we will always have 2010 to remember.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Posey Wins MVP in Internet Baseball Awards Voting

The MVP awards voted on by the Baseball Writers of America is announced Thursday but in the meantime Baseball Prospectus has announced the results of the Internet Baseball Awards Voting.

The award for Most Valuable Player was given to Buster Posey who beat out Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen by a fairly sizable manner.

Hopefully that is a sign of good news for Posey.

In other voting Bruce Bochy came in third place for Manager of the Year, Matt Cain came in 6th place, Madison Bumgarner 14th place and Sergio Romo 36th place for Cy Young and Hector Sanchez came in 50th place in the Rookie of the Year vote.

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Thursday, November 8, 2012

Baseball Prospectus Profiles Giants CF Prospect Gary Brown

Gary Brown is one of the Giants top prospects, and is the potential center fielder of the future. After destroying pitching in High A San Jose, he ran into a bit of a wall in AA Richmond. 

This morning Baseball Prospectus has him as their prospect profile (for free!). It's a nice little glimpse into what has been going on with him if you haven't been following his goings on very closely.

Here is the introduction:
Fifteen months ago Gary Brown was viewed by many as an elite prospect, destined to lose Gold Gloves to inferior defenders and lead the Giants to the Promised Land. People were amazed that 23 players were selected before Brown in the 2010 draft. When teams would inquire on Brown, the Giants would show reluctance to part with him to shore up their club in the short term. Many expected him to make it to the majors quickly and become the team’s center fielder of both the present and future. 
#Mets had asked #SFGiants for RHP Wheeler or OF Brown. Not getting Wheeler. We'll see on Brown.#tradedeadline #MLB
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2011
 Now, it looks like Brown is going to forever be remembered as the guy the Giants kept instead of Zack Wheeler, even though it’s unclear how exactly the Mets’ and Giants’negotiations went in the Carlos Beltran trade. After two years of professional baseball, Brown has become yet another “if he can hit…” prospect. What was once viewed as a special talent is now a mysterious talent. There are various opinions out there on the Cal State Fullerton product. If you believe in the hit tool, you think he’s going to be a great player. If you don’t, you think he’s a fourth outfielder. If you’re not certain, you’re in the majority.
I recommend reading the whole thing.

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Friday, November 2, 2012

Giants' Free Agents Expected Pay Days

Over at Fangraphs they have been working on a crowd sourcing project for each free agent. Today the results were announced so I thought it would be fun to take a look at what the results were for each of the Giants free agents.

Angel Pagan: 3 years, $10 million AAV (Average Annual Value)

Looking at this it makes the decision to not make a qualifying offer all the more puzzling. Pagan is one of the better free agent outfielder available and it seems like a good bet that he gets at least this deal from some team and possibly more from a desperate team.

I think if this is the best offer he gets the Giants can sign him, if it goes much higher than this he might be gone.

Marco Scutaro: 2 years, $8 million AAV

This is a little higher than I expected due to his age but I wouldn't say that this is an overpay. Going back to 2008, he hasn't produced a season where he was worth less than $9.5 million. That's a solid track record.

I would love if the Giants were able to keep him for the old Freddy Sanchez special of two years, $12 million total but that might be a pipe dream after his amazing second half and playoff performance. He isn't under the radar again and when people take a second look they will like what they see.

Melky Cabrera: 2 years, $8 million AAV

I really doubt Cabrera signs anything less than 4+ years or just a 1 year deal. If some team is willing to give him a long term deal I think he jumps on it. Other than that he probably looks at a one year deal to prove his numbers weren't all the result of PEDs and then try again in 2014.

I doubt he comes back with the Giants, but I would be interested to have him back.

Jeremy Affeldt: 2 years, $5 million AAV

This would be two more years at his current salary. That makes sense. I bet that this is about what he gets but there is an option/buy out tacked onto the end. Given this I would say the Giants bring him back unless someone comes in with a major overpay.

Freddy Sanchez: 1 year, $3 million AAV

To me this seems high. Sanchez is broken and may never play again. If I was a GM I wouldn't even consider him for a Major League contract at this point. I doubt that he comes back with the Giants, we'll always have the memories of 2010 and remember him as a good Giant.

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Thursday, November 1, 2012

No qualifying offers for Giants free agents

According to CSN Bay Area the Giants will not be making any qualifying offers to any of their free agents this offseason.

Before anybody freaks out that doesn't mean that they will not be making an effort to re-sign these players. What this means that they are not making them an offer that under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that would give the Giants draft pick compensation if someone else signed them.

The CBA states that in order for a player to qualify for draft pick compensation they must offer players that have been with the team the full season a one year deal equal to the average salary of the top 125 paid players. This year that comes out to a bit more than $13 million.

Of the Giants free agents only a couple really merited consideration for an offer, Cabrera (before the suspension, but a fairly big risk now), Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Affeldt.

I can totally understand not offering the deal to Cabrera or Affeldt.

A $13 million deal for one year is probably more than Affeldt will make over two years. For Cabrera, the Giants seem to be avoiding him like the plague and bringing him back at any amount seems like a long shot.

Pagan on the other hand, this seems like it would have been a prudent risk to take.

Going back to 2009, he has been worth $13.2 million, $21.8 million, $3.9 million and $21.6 million according to Fangraphs WAR to dollar conversion. That's an average of $15.1 million per season over that period.

Given that it doesn't seem like much of an overpay to consider him at one year $13 million, essentially that is his fair market value.

The other thing to consider is that he is probably looking for a long term deal this offseason. With a weak market for free agent outfielders it is a good bet that he will have multiple teams interested in him and will get offers in excess of one year that will guarantee more money than this. In addition this was a strong year for him so it isn't likely that he would want a one year deal to try to rebuild his value.

After considering these things it makes less sense to not offer Pagan a qualifying offer. A one year deal works well for the Giants long term plans, it isn't a massive overpay for his skills and he is likely to see multiple suitors so it would be prudent to attempt to get compensation if he leaves.

This isn't a dumb decision, but I would have loved to been privy to the thought process of what into making it.