Thursday, March 29, 2012

One of these isn't like the other...


Grant at McCovey Chronicles took a look at the Giants history of evaluating hitters and in the process posted a table that I want to take a look at further.

Giants since 2005:
2005: .319 on-base percentage (29th out of 30 teams), .714 OPS (28th), 86 OPS+ (29th), 649 runs scored (29th)
2006: .324 on-base percentage (28th), .746 OPS (25th), 90 OPS+ (24th), 746 runs scored (24th)
2007: .322 on-base percentage (28th), .708 OPS (30th), 82 OPS+ (30th), 683 runs scored (29th)
2008: .321 on-base percentage (25th), .703 OPS (28th), 83 OPS+ (29th), 640 runs scored (29th)
2009: .309 on-base percentage (30th), .699 OPS (30th), 82 OPS+ (30th), 657 runs scored (26th)
2010: .321 on-base percentage (22nd), .729 OPS (17th), 98 OPS+ (15th), 697 runs scored (17th)
2011: .303 on-base percentage (29th), .671 OPS (27th), 89 OPS+ (25th), 570 runs scored (29th)

One of the things that is harped upon is that you need to look at the bigger picture and not be fooled by small sample sizes. Is this the case here with Brian Sabean's track record of building an offense?

Excluding the 2010 lightening in a bottle year the best the Giants have ranked is 24th in any of the above offensive categories since 2005. The averages (including 2010) over the span are: 27th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 26th in OPS+, and 26th in runs scored.

Yikes.

It is hard to imagine that the offense will have a repeat performance of last season's historically bad team (seriously they were one of the worst offensive teams in the history of the proud franchise) but with this now laid out is it realistic to expect that this team will resemble a league average offense?

I really don't think so and with the Giants underwhelming off season moves that didn't do much to beef up the offense it will take some more lightening in a bottle and some career years to get back to that level.

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