Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Modeling a deal for Pablo Sandoval

The Giants rotund third baseman is coming to the end of his contract. The Giants want to keep him for the right price, Sandoval wants to stay for the right price. The two parties opinion of that right price seems to be miles apart at the moment.

So I thought this presented a great opportunity to take a look what the market price might be for a free agent Pablo Sandoval.

Over at Bay Area Sports Guy, I ran all the numbers based on the free agent signings made over the winter, here is the conclusion that I came to:
Now there are a number of caveats that need to be made and missing information that is not taken into account with this model. The issues include: his age, weight, injury issues, positional scarcity at third base, the lack of internal options to replace him and his work ethic, many of these were covered by Steve in his post that he wrote on the contract situation. The potential big one that isn't included is what a qualifying offer might do to his value if he waits until next season to sign, we have seen this already really change the markets for middle tier free agents over the past two winters and Sandoval could end up in that camp if he underperforms or gets injured this season. 
With all of the above taken into account, I think if the Giants want to make a deal to keep Sandoval they will need to come a lot closer to the numbers that the model suggests. Giants management might not be comfortable with the dollar figures but if they want to keep their third baseman they will need to pay up.
Read the whole thing, I think it is worth your time.

Looking for San Francisco Giants tickets check out our partner TiqIQ.

No comments:

Post a Comment