Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Giants odds at 28 percent: Updated NLDS Odds

After an improbable win where the Giants offense took a play right out of the 2010 Padres playbook the Giants season continues to today.

Since I last looked at the odds things have changed quite a bit, with Johnny Cueto out and Mike Leake brought into replace him. Today it is Leake vs. Barry Zito (another change) and if necessary it will be Mat Latos vs. Matt Cain tomorrow morning.

Here is everything updated with the changes since a ran the original projection and the updated odds:

Reds Giants
Game 1 100% 0%
Game 2 100% 0%
Game 3 0% 100%
Game 4 49% 51%
Game 5 44% 56%

And the permutations for the last two games:

Games Reds Giants
3 0% 0%
4 49% 0%
5 23% 28%
Total 72% 28%

It's still a long shot for the Giants but crazier things have happened and amazingly the Giants are actually favored in the last two games (even though they would be better classified as toss ups).

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