Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Sanchez > Belt ???


Whoa, there sure are a bunch of cob webs here. It's been a while since I have written here because most of my writing has been over at Bay Area Sports Guy but as time allows I will make an effort to keep this blog going as well. I have been a bit of a slacker and hope to do better in the future.

Today I want to take a second to talk about a very important subject.

I asked Bochy if Sanchez's bat is preferable to Belt's. "Yeah, I think that's fair to say. Wouldn't you?"

Yeah so about that I don't believe that it is true but don't take my word for it. Let's take a look at the numbers.

Batting Average:
Sanchez - .278
Belt - .250

Advantage Sanchez

On Base Percentage:
Sanchez - .282
Belt - .360

Advantage Belt

Slugging Percentage:
Sanchez - .381
Belt - .408

Advantage Belt

Isolated Power:
Sanchez - .103
Belt - .158

Advantage Belt

If one was skeptical to these stats and the results that they pointed to, they may say something like this: A man can advance 2-3 bases on a hit, but one on a walk. 4 walks is only better than 3 hits if those are station-to-station singles.

That is true. Linear weights says so, a single is worth .46 runs while a walk is worth .303 runs. So three singles is worth 1.38 runs while four walks is worth 1.212 runs. Both of these are worth less than one home run is. Given the choice you would rank your choices: 1-4 with a homer, 3-4 with 4 singles and then 0-0 with 4 walks.

It's too bad there isn't a stat that keeps track of all of this over a full season is there. Oh wait yes there is, it is called weighted on base average and uses linear weights to give everything a batter does it's proper credit.

wOBA:
Sanchez - .284
Belt - .336

Advantage Belt even when you take into account that hits are more valuable than walks.

Anyway that you measure it besides looking at just batting average Belt is a better all around hitter. He may not make contact at the same rate but his at bats will help the Giants win more games than Sanchez's. I really like Sanchez, he is a good back up but it really makes no sense to put him in the lineup at the expense of Belt.

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