Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Hunter Pence Trade Analysis

The Giants said that they weren't looking to make a big move at the trade deadline and then they went out and made a pretty big move to get Hunter Pence from the Phillies.

I wrote up some analysis on the trade for Bay Area Sports Guy, here is the conclusion:
Pence in right field replaces the Schierholtz/Gregor Blanco combo. When you look at what ZiPS projects for the rest of the season Pence will be worth approximately 1 WAR, the Shierholtz/Blanco combo was projected to be worth around 0.75 WAR. So the Giants are better, but not by a huge margin.
Fortunately for the Giants this isn’t a pure rental situation, as Pence has one more season of team control. He is projected to earn about $13 to 14 million next season, so if he is a 3-4 WAR player he could potentially have some decent surplus value. At worst, the Giants could flip him in the off-season if they decide they can’t afford him.
Overall the Giants probably got a pretty even amount of value in Pence for what they gave up in Schierholtz, Joesph and Rosin. I would have loved to see these trade chips used to get better at a position that has really killed them (like second base) but there really wasn’t much available there.
Today’s trade might make the Giants offense better. However, unless Pence is able to produce a fluky-hot second half like he had in Philadelphia last season, this isn’t really the game-changer kind of deal that guarantees an NL West title.
Read the whole thing. 

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