Monday, May 7, 2012

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Dodgers


The first Giants vs. Dodgers series of the season and it comes with even more meaning as the Dodgers are currently leading the NL West over the second place Giants.

 The Giants are coming off a nine game home stand where they managed to go .500 but really didn't play well and sandwiched between series wins against the Padres and Brewers was a brutal sweep at the hands of the Marlins where they dropped three one run games.

With a six game trip against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks staying at .500 will be a big accomplishment.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still weighted toward the projections but slightly less than it had been previously. It will stay pretty heavily projected toward projections until maybe Memorial Day when we have nearly two full months of data to go with.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Barry Zito vs. Ted Lilly
Ryan Vogelsong vs. Clayton Kershaw
Tim Lincecum vs. Chad Billinglsey (Come watch with the guys at BASG)


Odds:

Dodgers
Giants
Total Runs
Game 1
63%
37%
7.6
Game 2
62%
38%
6.3
Game 3
49%
51%
6.7
Sweep
19%
7%
2 out 3
43%
31%
1 out 3
31%
43%
0 out 3
7%
19%
Win Series
62%
38%
Lose Series
38%
62%

Predicting over under: I didn't have the time to post a preview for last week but the model said that I should take over, under, over, so with that I went 2-0 with a push on Saturday. With the 2-0 record that pushes my overall record to 12 and 10 pushes my record to .545 which is nearly at the break even point for gambling. So maybe I have a future at doing this.

Season record 12-10

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