Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Reds



The Giants are rolling right now winning 4 series in a row while going 9 and 4 in that span.To top all off they have the 5th best offense in the National League based on wRC+ and 4th in Fielding Independent Pitching.

The offense is scoring runs and the pitching is back on track preventing them. There really isn't much more that you can ask for, except that they keep it going for the whole season.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com

Matt Cain vs. Mat Latos
Barry Zito vs. Bronson Arroyo
Ryan Vogelson vs. Homer Bailey

Odds:
Reds
Giants
Total Runs
Game 1
42%
58%
7.5
Game 2
45%
55%
8.2
Game 3
42%
58%
7.9
Sweep
8%
19%
2 out 3
31%
42%
1 out 3
42%
31%
0 out 3
19%
8%
Win Series
39%
61%
Lose Series
61%
39%

The odds are heavily in the Giants favor and with the Giants holding an edge in each days pitching match-ups and with the improved offense giving a bump to the expected runs scored. The projection system says that the odds of another series win looks good. I sure hope that is the case.

Predicting over under: I got myself a split in the last series by taking the under in all four games. It looks like today is another day where my projection is right at the cutoff for the over/under so I won't have an official guess but with the way that Cain is pitching I would lean toward the under with my unofficial pick. Hopefully I can pick up a couple of right picks to get back on the correct side of .500.

Season record 7-8.
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