Friday, April 13, 2012

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Pirates


Opening day has arrived.

On the bright side things are starting to look a little better for the Giants after taking 2 out of 3 from the Rockies. Madison Bumgarner pitched an excellent game, Barry Zito threw a shutout and the Giants offense continued to score runs in bunches. There were some not so good things but now isn't the time to rehash those because opening day is for celebrating.

The Giants draw the struggling Pirates who come in with the lowest runs scored of any team in baseball and like the Giants they have only 2 wins in the young season.

My Projection model really likes the Giants chances this series so hopefully the Giants can send people home happy with another series win.

Probable Pitchers:

Matt Cain vs. James McDonald
Barry Zito vs. Charlie Morton (Morton hasn't been officially announced yet but is the likely choice)
Ryan Vogelsong vs. Kevin Correia

Odds:


Giants
Pirates
Total Runs
Game 1
56%
44%
6.6
Game 2
60%
40%
6.9
Game 3
61%
39%
7.3
Sweep
20%
7%
2 out 3
43%
30%
1 out 3
30%
43%
0 out 3
7%
20%
Win Series
63%
37%
Lose Series
37%
63%
One quick note, I have added in a park factor adjustment to the model to hopefully help make my total runs projection a little bit better.


Predicting over under: My results continue to match the teams, going 2 and 1 in the Colorado series. I took the under all three times and expect for the crazy Wednesday night game it worked out. The over/under for today's game is 6.5 so it looks like I will be taking the over for the first time of the season, so I hope the Giants continue to score at a high rate.

Season record: 2-4


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