Friday, April 27, 2012

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Padres


The Giants ended their series winning streak with a 1-2 series against the Reds but it could have been much worse had it not been for Angel Pagan who hit a breaking ball out in the top of the ninth to turn a 2 run deficit into a Giants lead. The road trip overall was above .500 and the Giants return home for a nine game home stand after playing 13 road games of their first 19.


Up first is the struggling Padres who my projection model says that the Giants should be pretty heavily favored to beat.


Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Eric Hacker* vs. Cory Luebke
Tim Lincecum vs. Anthony Bass
Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Richard

*Hacker hasn't been officially announced but he is the presumed starter

Odds:

Giants
Padres
Total Runs
Game 1
49%
51%
6.7
Game 2
70%
30%
6.0
Game 3
69%
31%
6.5
Sweep
24%
5%
2 out 3
45%
26%
1 out 3
26%
45%
0 out 3
5%
24%
Win Series
69%
31%
Lose Series
31%
69%

The big thing that is driving the Giants chances of winning is that their offense so far this season is projected to be nearly a full run higher per game. The Giants also have a pretty big advantage in the pitching department in games two and three.

Predicting over under: Another series, another split. My quest to get above .500 on the year continues. Just taking a quick look at my projected runs I think I will be taking the under in all three games, so hopefully the Giants pitching can shutdown the Padres and get my season record on the plus side.

Season record 8-9

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