Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Giants Ink Vogelsong to Two Year deal UPDATED

The Giants have reached a deal with pitcher Ryan Vogelsong on a two year deal with a club option as first reported by Mychael Urban.

I will hold off on deciding if it is a good or bad deal until the final numbers come out but I have seen tweets that it was in the $8 million range guaranteed which doesn't seem too bad.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is reporting that the breakdown of payments for the Vogelsong deal is $3 million in 2012, $5 million in 2013 with a $6.5 million club option in 2014 or a 300K buyout. The grand total comes out to $8.3 million guaranteed and worth as much as $14.5 million.

Based on these numbers to make this worth while Vogelsong would need to be worth 0.6 WAR next year and about 1 WAR the following season. If he pitches anywhere close to what he did last year that shouldn't be a problem but based on his previous 315 major innings prior to last season there is still quite a bit of risk.

I haven't done my projections for the Giants yet (look for those next month) but my initial guesstimate would be a FIP around the low 4's or so and 150-170 innings which should be enough to get him into the 1 to 1.5 WAR ball park. At worst this isn't a contact that the team would be crippled by if they needed to release him.

It is nice to have him back but I think that fans should be sure to keep the expectations in check, last year was special but don't expect lightening to strike twice in a row.

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