Monday, October 31, 2011

Hot Stove: Giants Budget Math Looks Bleak



With the signing of Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez the MLB Hot Stove season has officially kicked off for the Giants. With that in mind I think it is a good time to take a look at how much of the Giants budget will be left to spend on Free Agents this off season.

To get an idea I pulled up the Giants from Cot's Contracts and took a look at what MLB Trade Rumors projects for the Giants arbitration eligible players to get a rough estimate of where things will be for next year.

Here is the table with the 2012 salaries with an assumed $130 million budget:

Player
Salary
Budget Remaining
Lincecum, Tim
 $    19.20
 $  110.80
Zito, Barry
 $    19.00
 $    91.80
Cain, Matt
 $    15.33
 $    76.47
Rowand, Aaron
 $    13.60
 $    62.87
Huff, Aubrey
 $    10.00
 $    52.87
Wilson, Brian
 $       8.50
 $    44.37
Sanchez, Freddy
 $       6.00
 $    38.37
Sanchez, Jonathan
 $       5.20
 $    33.17
Affeldt, Jeremy
 $       5.00
 $    28.17
Lopez, Javier
 $       4.25
 $    23.92
Sandoval, Pablo
 $       3.20
 $    20.72
Jeff Keppinger
 $       2.70
 $    18.02
Torres, Andres
 $       2.50
 $    15.52
Ryan Vogelsong
 $       2.50
 $    13.02
Ramirez, Ramon S.
 $       2.30
 $    10.72
Casilla, Santiago
 $       1.90
 $       8.82
Fontenot, Mike
 $       1.30
 $       7.52
Romo, Sergio
 $       1.30
 $       6.22
Schierholtz, Nate
 $       1.20
 $       5.02
Whiteside, Eli
 $       0.70
 $       4.32
Burriss, Emmanuel
 $       0.60
 $       3.72
Posey, Buster
 $       0.50
 $       3.22
Bumgarner, Madison
 $       0.45
 $       2.77
Runzler, Dan
 $       0.45
 $       2.32
Belt, Brandon
 $       0.45
 $       1.87
Chris Stewart
 $       0.45
 $       1.42

Guys in green are arbitration eligible who I expect to come back, guys in yellow are arbitration eligible and are candidates for not having a contract tendered to them. The guys in white have a contract already for next season or are under team control still. Finally there is Aaron Rowand who was released but still owed $13 million for next season and I am pretty sure counts against the Giants budget.

If everyone comes back that leaves about $1.5 million for Free Agent Activities. If the non-tender candidates don't come back that leaves about $12 million for Free Agents. If the partners that control the team are feeling generous and don't count Rowand's money owed to him this season and the non-tender candidates don't come back the Giants have about $25 million left for Free Agents.

The last issue is what the final number will be for the budget. For this exercise I have assumed $130 million but the more realistic number is a small increase from this seasons $122 million. If that is the case the chances of getting a big free agent are nearly zero, and the chance of getting more than one mid-tier free agent seem slim as well with around $118 already committed.

We will see how Brain Sabean deals with this situation, barring a big deal that moves a high priced pitcher or a change of heart from management this off season won't be one that offers any big name quick fixes.

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