Friday, September 2, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs Diamondbacks



The Giants are in second place 6 games back, the first place team is coming into town. If the Giants are serious about wanting to make the playoffs this would be a great time to start the winning and the scoring of runs.

Anything less than a series victory and the Giants slim playoff hopes are basically gone and even if they win things still don't look great. The odds are stacked against the Giants both in winning this series and making the playoffs.

You may think come on the Giants have their top 3 pitchers going and should have a good chance, well I have a newsflash for you... The Giants offense is so bad that it cancels out how good their pitching is. For example in the Ryan Vogelsong start they have the projected run differential of a team with a .469 winning percentage even while having a projected runs allowed per game of 3.6!

This offense is not good but man if they could just average 5 runs per game for the month this team (or even 4.5) this team could get back in the race.

Crazier things have happened like the Giants pitchers last season ripping off a historic pitching month but they shouldn't be counted to happen every season.

So anyway I am not optimistic but hey who saw the Giants losing back to back series to the Cubs and Astros even though they were heavily favored in nearly every game?

The Odds:

Giants
Diamondbacks
Game 1
56%
44%
Game 2
47%
53%
Game 3
38%
62%
Sweep
10%
14%
2 out 3
36%
40%
1 out 3
40%
36%
0 out 3
14%
10%
Win Series
46%
54%
Lose Series
54%
46%

So there is a 46 percent chance that the Giants season will still have a sliver of hope and there is a 10 percent chance that they will have a realistic shot of winning this division. Hey those odds are better than the lottery at least.

P.S.: In case you were wondering what the odds would be if they did come in averaging 5 runs per game I will leave this down here:

Giants
Diamondbacks
Game 1
74%
26%
Game 2
67%
33%
Game 3
57%
43%
Sweep
28%
4%
2 out 3
45%
23%
1 out 3
23%
45%
0 out 3
4%
28%
Win Series
73%
27%
Lose Series
27%
73%

5 runs a game for a month, that's not too much to ask is it?

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