Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Dodgers


As improbable as it seemed at the start of the month the Giants are kind of still in the playoff race. They are just 3.5 back of the suddenly collapsing  Braves (but have the Cardinals in the way) and 5.5 back from the Diamondbacks but get to play them 3 more times.

 The odds are still not good but hey they aren't zero which is more than we could have hoped for when everything started this month.


Here are the current odds given to the Giants to make the playoffs.

Baseball Prospectus: 4.4%
Cool Standings: 5.2%
Clay Davenport: 3.49%

The odds aren't great and the Giants need a lot of help but having their bats wake up from their collective cold streak has been very nice. The big test comes tonight when the Giants face the second best pitcher in the National League in Clayton Kershaw who causes fits for the Giants hitters.

In 71 and two thirds innings Kershaw has a 10.18 K/9, a 2.26 BB/9, a WHIP of 0.865, a 1.26 ERA and a FIP of 1.93. Basically if Giants hitters do Giants hitters things against Kershaw the winning streak will be over and the hopes of playoffs get a little dimmer.

No pressure Timmy.

The Odds:

Dodgers
Giants
Game 1
62%
38%
Game 2
61%
39%
Game 3
46%
54%
Sweep
17%
8%
2 out 3
42%
32%
1 out 3
32%
42%
0 out 3
8%
17%
Win Series
60%
40%
Lose Series
40%
60%


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