Friday, August 12, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Marlins


The Giants lost a series to the Pirates who were coming off a ten game losing streak.

The Giants are no longer in first place.

The Giants can't seem to score runs at all.

The Giants big mid-season acquisition has come down with a case of the DeRosa's.

It seems like all that good luck and all the breaks that the Giants were getting early in the season are now going the other way. The team looks bad. Luckily, they are doing this in early August and not late September and they have some time to get things back on track.

Unfortunately for the team, they are starting a long, ten game road trip that has the potential to derail the season if they keep up the pace they are going. If there is one silver lining, it's that they have their rotation set up nicely to try to get a winning streak going with Cain, Lincecum, and Vogelsong taking on the Marlins.

The odds for each game:

Marlins
Giants
Game 1
56%
44%
Game 2
47%
53%
Game 3
54%
46%
Sweep
14.05%
10.87%
2 out 3
39.16%
35.92%
1 out 3
35.92%
39.16%
0 out 3
10.87%
14.05%
Win Series
53%
47%
Lose Series
47%
53%


Again, what is killing the team is the offense in my projections. In each game, the pitching is superior, but the lack of offense plus the disadvantage of being on the road gives most of that back. It should be a close series, which I am hoping favors the Giants.

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