Monday, August 15, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Braves



Don't look now, but the Giants have a win streak going, everybody.

After a rather pathetic streak of baseball where the team lost 11 of 14 games and averaged just 2.21 runs per game, winning two in a row feels like a major accomplishment. Hopefully the team has some confidence because they will need it going into a very tough four game series against the Atlanta Braves.

The projections don't like the Giants chances (surprise, surprise; the offense is the cause) to win this series, but getting a split at the least seems like a possibility. I will take the odds of a split/win at 53% every time and ignore that they have a 47% chance of losing the series outright.

The odds for each game and the series:

Braves
Giants
Game 1
54%
46%
Game 2
66%
34%
Game 3
59%
41%
Game 4
60%
40%
Sweep
12.8%
2.5%
3 of 4
34.6%
15.3%
Split
34.7%
34.7%
1 of 4
15.3%
34.6%
0 of 4
2.5%
12.8%
Win Series
47%
18%
Split
35%
35%
Lose Series
18%
47%

The Braves have two guys without much of a track record going in Randall Delgado and Mike Minor, so rather than using the FIP from there short stints in the Majors ,I have decided to use their ZIPS projections rest of season FIP.

In addition, for this series, I have made the addition of adding in a defense variable. The effect is pretty minor, costing the Braves just 0.19 runs in each game and the Giants getting a boost of 0.06 runs.

This has the makings of a very tough test for the Giants but hopefully the team can find a way to score some runs and get at least a split here.

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