Friday, August 26, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Astros (Better Late than Never)



So game one of this 4 game series sure didn't go to plan.

It was pretty ugly but surprisingly that was the game that my projecting model said that they had the least favorable chance of winning so at least in the next 3 the Giants should have a good chance to at the very least salvage a split.

When run the numbers for the final 3 games the Giants have a 25% chance of winning the final 3 with a 44% chance of at least salvaging a split. I don't even want to mention the other alternatives because that would be a huge blown chance against a not very good Astros team.

Anyway here are the full odds including last nights game:


Giants
Astros
Game 1
57%
43%
Game 2
66%
34%
Game 3
61%
39%
Game 4
62%
38%
Sweep
14.3%
2.1%
3 of 4
36.0%
13.9%
Split
33.7%
33.7%
1 of 4
13.9%
36.0%
0 of 4
2.1%
14.3%
Win Series
50%
16%
Split
34%
34%
Lose Series
16%
50%


Just win baby.

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