Monday, August 1, 2011

Orlando Cabrera Trade Analysis

The Giants made one more trade before the non-waiver trade deadline acquiring Orlando Cabrera from the Cleveland Indians. The Giants management thinks that he is an upgrade at shortstop, I would have to disagree but in the end the deal at least on paper isn't going to make or break the Giants chances.

In the deal the Giants sent outfield and middle of the road prospect Thomas Neal the other way. Neal had a breakout season a couple years back in San Jose and since then hasn't quite had the same success at higher levels.

I am not thrilled by this deal but it isn't going to break the Giants farm system by any means either.

Cabrera's value:

Cabrera is over the hill and playing like it. He has a .242/ .275/ .318 triple slash line, his offense has never been his calling card and with all the miles on him I am not expecting too much out of him. With his plate approach expect few walks (3.7% walk rate) and a moderate amount of strikeouts (11.8%) and a bunch of ground balls.

His defense was once elite at shortstop but with age he has lost that ability. This season he moved over to second base but the primary responsibility with the Giants will be at shortstop. I am expecting him to be solid but not spectacular and most likely around average.

Taking all of this into account and I think you have maybe a 1 win player over the course of a full season. Over the remaining games he will probably be worth about 0 to half a win and will be paid approximately $400K by the Giants. That leaves a surplus value of about $1.5 million. It is highly unlikely that he will be a type A or B free agent and I wouldn't suspect that the Giants would want to risk offering him arbitration so there is probably not going to be any compensation draft picks after he leaves this off season.

What they gave up:

The Giants gave up one of their outfield prospects in Thomas Neal. He is likely the 3rd or 4th best outfielder in the organization behind Gary Brown, Francisco Peguero and possibly Jarrett Parker. Neal's ceiling is a non-start regular at a corner position but after a couple disappointing seasons where he battled injuries and adjusting to higher levels of competition it looks like he will be a back up 4th outfield kind of player.

That is still nice to have around but it isn't likely that the Giants gave up too much especially with higher ceiling outfielders in the organization already.

Here is his career stat line:

2006 18 A- 50 187 26 44 6 2 4 20 7 44 .250 .289 .375
2007 19 Rk 10 46 7 12 3 0 1 4 5 7 .308 .413 .462
2008 20 A 117 497 69 118 25 1 15 81 48 103 .276 .359 .444
2009 21 A+ 129 559 102 160 41 4 22 90 65 98 .337 .431 .579
2010 22 AA 136 585 69 153 40 1 12 69 46 94 .291 .359 .440
2011 23 AAA 60 239 35 65 13 3 2 25 13 50 .295 .351 .409
6 Seasons 502 2113 308 552 128 11 56 289 184 396 .296 .372 .467
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2011.

As a B- hitting prospect prospect his surplus value would be approximated at around $3 million. He doesn't have a huge upside but should have a fairly high floor and will likely make the majors and it could be as soon as next season.


This trade is far less exciting than the two previous ones made by the Giants. It doesn't offer much of an upgrade and it certainly doesn't involve a blockbuster name. The Giants get approximately $1.5 million in surplus value and give up about $3 million. The dealt from an area of relative strength to give themselves some more options at short stop so this isn't a bad move by any stretch of the imagination it isn't a game changer.

I would have loved to have stuck with Brandon Crawford at shortstop but with such anemic offense I guess even the most marginal of improvements are needed to eek out a couple more runs.

I hope that he finds the fountain of youth and gives the Giants a couple solid months at shortstop.

Become a fan on Facebook and follow the The Crazy Crabbers on twitter there is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!

No comments:

Post a Comment