Friday, August 5, 2011

Can We Expect Aubrey Huff to Rebound?


Here is a question that must be on the minds of many Giants fans in light of Brandon Belt being optioned to Fresno and the team going all in with Aubrey Huff as the first baseman.

Can we expect Aubrey Huff to rebound this season?

I hate to be the barer of bad news but the answer is it is unlikely to happen.

Here's why, his batted ball data suggests that this isn't just bad luck but that he is a significantly worse hitter this season. You may at first glance look at his batting line and see that he has just a .264 batting average on balls in play and say that he is bound to get better. Well when you take a close look that sad truth is that he has been a little unlucky but not terribly so.


Type
#
BABiP
xBABip
H
xH
FB
118
0.155
0.127
17
14
LD
52
0.654
0.774
34
40
GB
166
0.217
0.211
36
35
328
0.264
0.272
87
89

In this table we show what his expected hits would be if we used his career averages for each type of batted ball. The difference is minimal in fact it is just 2 hit different between the two, that extra hit would raise his batting average from .244 to .249.

Huff's problem is that he grounding out too much, hitting weak fly balls (his home run rate on fly balls this season is 40% lower than it was last year) and not hitting many line drives.

When Bruce Bochy says that they need to get his bat going I am not sure what he means because this looks like the real Aubrey Huff and not like he is been a victim of bad luck and just needs some more rope for his luck to even out.

Unless there is some magic that brings back his ability to hit line drives instead of pop ups and ground balls this is going to be a very tough month to watch.

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