Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Giants vs. Phillies: Projecting the Series

Giants and Phillies! The big match-up that both teams have been waiting for since the NLCS ended. Instead of doing a series preview I thought that I would try something a little bit different this time around and attempt to give the odds of what could happen in this series.

I have built my self a nice little tool that I hope will give us a rough estimation of how the probability of outcomes for this series, if you want an idea of how works look at the bottom. Without further rumblings, the results:

I ran two simulations, one based on a neutral field and the other that gives the home team a slight bump for home field advantage.

In both simulations the Phillies are favored to win the series. In the neutral simulation the Phillies are expected to win the series 58% of the time (16% sweep and 42% winning 2 out of 3) even though the Giants are slight favorites in games 1 and 2.

With the home field advantage factored in the Phillies are favored to win the series 62% of the time (18% sweep and 43% winning 2 out of 3). Game 1 becomes a toss up with the Phillies favored to win in the last 2 contests.

What kills the Giants in this projection is the Barry Zito start with his game heavily favored towards the Phillies with a expected winning percentage in that game of over 70%.

This should be an exciting match-up and hopefully we get 3 well played games and a series victory for the Giants.

How it works:

First determine runs allowed for each time by taking expected innings pitched for each starter (SP IP/ GS) and then multiple by SIERA per inning (SIERA/9). Then for bullpen runs allowed take 9 minus expected SP innings then multiple by the SIERA per inning of the bullpen.

For runs per game that is simply total runs scored divided by games.

To determine who wins odds of winning I derive the expected winning percentage of the team with that starter and bullpen combination using the pathageron expectation and then the log5 method for determine the odds for each team winning based on each team's winning percentage.

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