Friday, July 1, 2011

Giants Pre-Season Hitting Projection's Revisited


We have just passed the halfway point on the season, so it seems appropriate to take a look back at how I have done with my 2011 Giants projections.

Overall, just about everyone was within my best and worst case scenarios and I did fairly well in the rate stats (except for slugging, which I generally overstated) but the weird playing time threw off some of the counting stats.

Here is the rundown of how I did:



Posey

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.299
0.362
0.483
37
15
2
10
39
1
Best Case
0.329
0.398
0.531
48
20
2
13
51
2
Worst Case
0.269
0.326
0.434
26
11
1
7
27
1
Actual
0.284
0.368
0.389
17
5
0
4
21
3


My counting stats projections are obviously off, but these are scaled to him playing half a season and with his season ending injury, he has played less than what the projection projected. I did pretty good with the batting average and on base percentage, but I totally missed his power leaving him. Maybe with more time that would have come back.

Whiteside

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.235
0.291
0.379
10
5
1
3
10
1
Best Case
0.259
0.320
0.417
13
6
1
3
13
1
Worst Case
0.212
0.262
0.341
7
3
1
2
7
1
Actual
0.215
0.295
0.355
7
3
2
2
9
0


I did pretty well with this one, as he lands pretty much right in between the projection and the worst case. I wish he would have hit the best case, which would make the sting of losing Posey hurt a lot less.

Huff

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.277
0.356
0.466
42
17
2
11
41
3
Best Case
0.304
0.391
0.512
55
20
3
15
54
4
Worst Case
0.249
0.320
0.419
30
12
1
8
29
2
Actual
0.243
0.294
0.38
27
15
1
8
41
3


This one hurts to look at. He is below his worst case and the original projection looks like a pipe dream. I am not sure what I was smoking when I made these numbers, but maybe I can scrounge some more up to numb this pain.

Sanchez

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.287
0.331
0.39
32
14
1
4
26
2
Best Case
0.316
0.364
0.428
41
18
2
5
34
2
Worst Case
0.258
0.298
0.351
22
10
1
3
18
1
Actual
0.289
0.322
0.397
21
15
1
3
24
0


I miss Sanchez and, also, a gold star for me on this projection that is pretty damn close to what actually happened.

Sandoval

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.294
0.346
0.466
35
19
2
9
39
2
Best Case
0.323
0.380
0.512
46
25
2
12
50
3
Worst Case
0.264
0.311
0.419
25
14
1
6
27
1
Actual
0.293
0.335
0.46
18
7
0
6
18
2

The counting stats are off, but I did well on the rate stats. I wouldn't mind if he was best case Sandoval the rest of the season.

Tejada

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.269
0.315
0.399
39
15
1
7
39
2
Best Case
0.305
0.346
0.439
50
19
2
10
50
2
Worst Case
0.249
0.283
0.359
27
11
0
5
27
1
Actual
0.227
0.257
0.304
21
14
0
2
20
3


When I made this projection, I adjusted it up because I thought I was being too pessimistic. Well, it turns out I wasn't pessimistic enough. Tejada caught a case of the olds and has looked like he is swinging a slow bat. He is doing a little better as of late, but if you are just league average during a "hot" streak, that is a bad sign.

Fontenot

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.270
0.327
0.388
18
10
2
2
18
1
Best Case
0.297
0.360
0.427
23
12
2
3
22
2
Worst Case
0.243
0.300
0.349
13
7
1
2
12
1
Actual
0.207
0.315
0.391
7
7
2
2
9
2

For some reason, I am excited for Fontenot to come back. His small sample walk rate and ISO have me salivating. As for the projection, I am giving myself an incomplete, seeing as he has just 108 PA this season.

Burrell

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.243
0.344
0.451
29
12
1
11
36
0
Best Case
0.267
0.378
0.496
37
15
1
14
46
0
Worst Case
0.219
0.309
0.406
20
8
0
8
25
0
Actual
0.236
0.344
0.435
17
9
1
7
20
0

Burrell is who we thought he was going to be. A guy who hits the ball hard, walks, and strikes out a lot. His numbers are almost exactly what I expected, but he has gotten much less playing time than I would have wanted. I want more Pat the Bat over the second half of the season.

Torres

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.264
0.334
0.442
39
16
4
7
27
11
Best Case
0.29
0.368
0.485
50
21
6
10
35
17
Worst Case
0.238
0.301
0.398
27
11
3
5
19
8
Actual
0.222
0.321
0.357
28
14
1
3
13
8


I expected that it would be possible for Huff to have a big drop off but I wanted to believe that Torres would repeat what he did in 2010. The disappearance of his power and his recent slump has killed his numbers to where the only thing worth mentioning is he can still get on base. I hope this is just a slump and that he returns to form because right now, this is looking like a major miss on the projection.

Ross

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.267
0.320
0.439
34
15
1
9
36
4
Best Case
0.293
0.352
0.483
44
20
2
12
47
5
Worst Case
0.245
0.298
0.41
24
13
1
6
25
3
Actual
0.263
0.352
0.424
26
15
0
6
23
4


Ross has been one of the better Giants hitters this season and I have been pleasantly surprised with the walk rate, which is better than what I had projected. He has had less power than I was hoping, but that seems to be the case with every Giants hitter.

Rowand

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.250
0.309
0.398
25
10
1
6
23
3
Best Case
0.275
0.339
0.438
32
13
1
8
30
3
Worst Case
0.225
0.278
0.335
17
7
1
5
16
2
Actual
0.242
0.295
0.353
24
15
1
2
15
2


Another projection that I did well on except for the missing power outage. I can't say that I saw his crazy platoon splits coming though or that he would continue to be the second option to hit lead off.

Schierholtz

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.259
0.315
0.406
20
9
2
3
15
3
Best Case
0.285
0.346
0.447
26
12
3
4
19
4
Worst Case
0.233
0.283
0.366
14
6
2
2
10
2
Actual
0.264
0.318
0.412
23
13
1
4
23
5


Schierholtz is the only player to outperform my projections in every category (except triples). That right there probably explains a lot about why this team is near the bottom for team offense instead of middle of the pack like I expected.

Overall, I did fairly well in my projections given my latitude of best case to worst case. I would have liked to be more on the best case side instead of just about everyone missing on the worst case, but I think that in the second half, we can expect better things. I think it's unlikely everyone will continue to hit well below what I perceive as their true talent level and maybe a few will have some magical hot streaks.

I will look at my pitching projections next week.

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