Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Giants Offense Needs the Weather to Get Warmer

There is a truism in baseball; when the weather gets warmer, the hitters get warmer. I'm sure we have all heard this over the course of our baseball lives and I wanted to take the chance to see if there was any truth to this nugget.

I went into the baseball-reference box scores and put in the runs scored per game and also the temperature at the start of the game.

Here is that plotted out:

Click for larger view

After 60 games, there may be some truth to this. The trend-line is upward sloping, showing that warmer temperatures do correlate with higher runs, but there is still a whole lot of noise in the scatter plot, as the r squared is just 0.05. The other things not taken into account here are the ball park, pitcher, team, or number of innings played. Without all the other variables accounted for, no concrete conclusions can be drawn.

This is definitive but it doesn't disprove that warmer weather leads to more runs and the Giants need all the help they can get offensively. I will keep an eye on this and report back later in the season when we have more data.

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