Saturday, March 26, 2011

Pete Rose Special: The 2011 Giants Prop Bets


Bodog.com, the online sports book, has just come out with their 2011 individual player proposition bets. Here is a run down of the Giants lines:

Aubrey Huff – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under .276

Thought: This is a really tough one. I have him projected at .277 for the season, but if I were to put money on this, I would take the under.

Aubrey Huff – Total HR’s in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 22

Thought: I have 21 homers and I think to expect more than that is too much as a left handed hitter at AT&T Park. I would pretty confidently take the under here.

Buster Posey – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under .297

Thought: I have him at .299 which is again about perfectly on point. I would lean over, but with BA, there is so much fluctuation year-to-year that this is a hard bet.

Buster Posey – Total HR’s in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 21.5

Thought: I have 19 projected and I think that is pretty good and still leaves you two homers to play with. I would take the under here.

Miguel Tejada – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under .279

Thought: I have Tejada hitting .269 and with his lousy spring, I have a feeling that may be on the high side. This seems like the most sure bet yet. Take the under.

Miguel Tejada – Total RBI’s in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 72.5

Thought: I projected 77 but I have no confidence in that projection. This will depend on where he hits in the order. If he's in the five spot for the majority of the games, this is probably a good cover, but if he moves to 7 or 8 or falls apart, he could miss by 25 or more.

Pablo Sandoval – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under .290

Thought: I have .294 and I think that taking the over here is a decent bet. With him being in better shape and looking to be playing with confidence again, I think a .300 season is possible. Plus, being able to run better may help him beat out a few more infield hits.

Cody Ross – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under .264

Thought: I have .267 and I think he can do better than .264. I just have doubts now if the calf injury turns into something nagging. The other thing is that he probably has a shorter leash to work out of slumps with the depth of outfielders the Giants carry. I would pass on this. It's just too close to call for me.

Tim Lincecum – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 16.5

Thought: I have him winning 16 games but predicting wins is something that's very hard. I would stay away from this bet.

Tim Lincecum – Total Strikeouts in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 245

Thought: 245 is a lot of strikeouts and to get there, he will have to throw a ton of innings. I think he's more in the 230 range, especially if the Giants don't ride him as hard this year. I am taking the under; the over is just too high.

Tim Lincecum – ERA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 2.98

Thought: I projected a 3.05 ERA, so I lean over, but he has the ability to go well under this number. My heart says take the under, but my head says don't bet real money on this.

Matt Cain – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 15.5

Thought: I have 14 wins and I lean under on wins in general. This one I would feel better betting on.

Matt Cain – ERA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 3.15

Thought: I have a 3.27 ERA and I think that is pretty fair. Cain is a good pitcher. I just don't see a high probability of a sub 3 ERA; more likely in the mid 3's and an over.

Barry Zito – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 11

Thought: I have 12 and I have gone out on a limb in supporting Zito. I think he gets to 12 and covers the line.

Madison Bumgarner – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 12.5

Thought: I have 10 wins and that's only because I think the Giants will be careful with the kid. I will take the under.

Jonathan Sanchez – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 13.5

Thought: I have Sanchez finishing with 12 wins but he's really hard to predict. He could have a Cy Young caliber season and win 20 or go Oliver Perez all over the Giants. I say pass on this one. I don't have the balls for this bet.

Brian Wilson – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/ Under 42.5

Thought: 42.5 is a lot of saves. He could do it and the Giants should have a bunch of close games to close out, but this one is just too high for me to take. I say he gets mid-to-high 30's and finishes under.

Will Brian Wilson shave his beard completely during the 2011 Regular Season?
Yes 5/2

Thought: Who knows. He is a little off, which makes anything possible. Personally, I say he keeps it, but you may as well flip a coin.

Become a fan on Facebook and follow The Crazy Crabbers on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment