Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Madison Bumgarner 2011 Projection

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner delivers a pitch to the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on August 20, 2010. UPI/Bill Greenblatt
Madison Bumgarner was the cause of a lot of concern last spring. This year, not so much. After a strong second half, he has calmed the fears of Giants fans and looks like the next in a line of great young pitchers that the Giants have developed.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

2011 Projection 3.451071651501449142
Best Case2.761261881801753170
Worst Case 4.14 891501481444101

Bumgarner was a stud in the second half last season and earned the trust of the Giants brass to earn a spot on the postseason rotation over the highest paid player on the team. This season, the Giants have put him at number five in the rotation, but in reality, he is arguabl the third best pitcher on this staff and this move is just a way to limit his workload.

I see nothing but good things for Bumgarner this season. He came into camp in much better shape and his mechanics are sharp. This has translated into his first few starts being very solid. I imagine that the Giants will try to limit his innings early in the season after his jump in 2010, but I don't see this affecting his performance. He is the definition of country strong and seemed to get stronger as the season went on last year.

Bumgarner's ceiling is as high as anyone and he is still just 21 (turning 22 in August). He has his best years in front of him.

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

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