Monday, February 7, 2011

Pablo Sandoval 2011 Projection

A new week and a new round of projections coming your way. Up first this week is Pablo Sandoval.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

2011 Projections.294.346.4667038318773
Best Case.323380.51291504231005
Worst Case.264.311.4194927212542

To say that Pablo had a disappointing year in 2010 is an understatement. Sandoval was expected to be the main threat of the Giants offense and was, at best, a bit player last year. His wild swing makes him one of the hardest players to project for 2011.

Do you dismiss the struggles as a sophomore slump and will bounce back or do you see this as a new baseline for future performance?

I personally fall in the first camp. I have been persuaded by the relentless work of OGC, who has a theory that his down periods overlap with his personal troubles last season. I believe that these issues just compounded on one another and were the reasons he couldn't get back on track. On top of that, he had some bad luck with balls in play that went the opposite way from 2009.

My projection is roughly a split of his 2009 and 2010 seasons, with the best case resembling him bouncing back to that All-Star level and the worst case is him repeating last year. I wish I had some sort of inside information on which Pablo will show up next year to share, but I don't.

All I have is my unusual optimism (that is usually my brother's position, while I play Mr. glass half empty) that Sandoval will have a new focus that was shaken last year. He seems humbled by the experience and has put in the work this offseason.

At this point, all we can do is hope that it isn't one of those fluff pieces that we see in the newspaper every spring about a player being in the best shape of his life.

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

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