Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Matt Cain 2011 Projection

It is pretty easy to love Matt Cain as a Giants fan. He is the longest tenured player on the team, he is a very humble guy, and, above all else, he is an awesome player.

He may be overshadowed by Tim Lincecum in the national media, but Cain is still a hero to Giants fans everywhere. Cain has been the rock that anchors the Giants pitching staff. He's nearly a lock to give the team 200 or more quality innings and give the Giants a chance to win and I don't expect that to change this season.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

2011 Projection 3.271492171832168178
Best Case2.611682402202581220
Worst Case 3.92 11111801461654130

I will keep this short and sweet. I expect good things from Matt Cain this season.

He is a model of consistency in giving quality innings, with the level of quality rising the last few years, as he has honed his craft. He is a savvy veteran but still one of the youngest pitchers in the starting rotation. I see few reasons why he should regress away from his career norms. It's entirely possible that he could continue his march toward being one of the best pitchers in the National League.

The best case would put him in the conversation for Cy Young consideration and the regular projection gets him in the discussion as an All-Star (with the added benefit of Bruce Bochy picking the reserves this season).

The worst case here would be a disappointment, but would still be superior to more then 60% of pitchers in the majors. I don't imagine this happening without some truly awful luck or an injury.

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

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