Monday, February 28, 2011

Jonathan Sanchez 2011 Projection

Next in line for the Giants 2011 projections is the newly minted #2 starter, Jonathan Sanchez.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

2011 Projection 3.3912101841492091185
Best Case2.721482211792495235
Worst Case 4.07 91214811916110125

Sanchez is a frustrating guy to project. At times he is absolutely unhittable and looks like the second coming of Randy Johnson. At other times, he can't find the strike zone and you wonder if he is worth the headache.

If you've followed the Giants, this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, as this is the main complaint lodged against him. Last season, I wrote a little bit about his up's and down's and I imagine that this season will be filled with them as well.

If he can get a little more control and not lose the mental focus, he could have ace type stuff. Lefties with strikeout stuff don't come around that often. Since 2000, only 13 left-handed pitchers have thrown 150+ while striking out at least a batter an inning. One of them is Sanchez, who has accomplished this the last 2 seasons.

If he puts things together for the whole season, the ceiling is a Cy Young. He has the talent that's never been in question. More realistically, he is a solid above average pitcher who will be very frustrating to watch at times. That is the pitcher that I expect in 2011, but in the back of my mind, I know that there is the risk of him completely falling apart and going toward that worst case.

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

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