Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Buster Posey 2011 Projection

With Spring Training just around the corner (pitchers and catchers report in 13 days) I figured that it is about time to bring out my projections for the 2011 season.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats, now I know my limitations so I will gave you that line of stats but also a best case and a worst case so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

First up is Mr. Rookie of the Year Buster Posey:

2011 Projections .299 .362 .483 7330319782
Best Case ..329 .398 .53195 393261013
Worst Case .269 .326 .434 5121213541

I am expecting a little bit of a comeback from Posey this season, not a huge drop off but not quite the same luck on balls in play and a little less power. I do expect the walk rate to get better and most of the power counting numbers should stay roughly the same with a full season to accumulate stats.

Posey should remain a key cog in the Giants steadily improving offense, I am not sure if I think that he has 20+ homer power yet as I still see him as a gap to gap doubles hitter who will occasionally get a hold of one and send it into the seats. I have moved up from where I was before thinking he was 15 homer guy, as now I see him in the high teens.

I expect that Posey’s average will come back down a little but should fall that much as he still has a great approach and squares up a lot of balls I think that this good approach becomes more apparent in his walk rate which I expect to rise this season.

Looking at the best case scenario I imagine an MVP caliber season, I am not thinking that this is necessarily likely but I would imagine that this would be a career year type line that Buster is capable of any given season for the next few seasons.

The worst case would be a disappointment but still a good line for a catcher. A sophomore slump is possible as scouts and pitchers have had 3 months to study how to attack Posey, I think that he is smart enough to make adjustments but there could be some moments where Posey struggles this coming season.

If this happens the Giants are probably in trouble but the same could have been said last year regarding Pablo Sandoval and that worked out pretty good.

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