Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Analyzing Giants Arbitration Settlements


A slew of Giants announcements came out this afternoon with arbitration settlements for Cody Ross, Jonathan Sanchez, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez.

Ross in his last season of arbitration received a deal worth $6.3 million. If you follow the 40%, 60%, 80% arbitration to free market ratio that puts Ross at a 1.6 WAR player ($6.3/0.8 gives free agent value of $7.875 million and with a marginal win valued at $5 million leave 1.575 WAR).

This to me is a good discount, Ross has averaged 2.4 WAR with a low of 1.8 WAR so baring an injury it is a pretty safe bet that he can outperform this deal.

Sanchez in his second year of arbitration and received a deal worth $4.8 million. Using the same methodology as above values Sanchez at a 1.6 WAR player as well. This deal is another good discount. Sanchez has outperformed this every year and I think it is safe to say that he should be able to do this again.

Ramirez in his second year of arbitration and received a deal worth $1.6 million. Using the same methodology as above values Ramirez at a 0.5 WAR player. Over his career he has averaged 0.76 WAR and even with the volatility in reliever statistics this seems like it is pretty close to right on the money.

Casilla in his second year of arbitration and received a deal worth $1.3 million. Using the same methodology as above values Ramirez at a 0.4 WAR player. Over his career he has averaged 0.17 WAR but last season was worth nearly 1 win. If Casilla can approach last seasons numbers he could be a very nice bargain.

Overall it seems with this batch of deals the Giants did well getting below market rates with most of these guys  and avoided having to go to an arbitration hearing that the team views as a bad for morale.

If you're on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.

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