Thursday, December 30, 2010

Really Early MLB Projections have Red Sox, Phillies as favorites


It is a slow week transaction and rumor wise so let's spice things up by taking a look at some far too early projections of the final standings of 2011. The early returns show that the defending champion Giants have a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Replacement Level Yankees using the Cairo projection system that is there creation along with the MLB Depth Charts simulated the 2011 season 10,000 times the NL West looks like a crap shoot with Colorado the early favorites followed by the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.

Here is the full standings:

Date 12/28/2010
Iterations 10000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox98.1 63.9 856 690 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 9.1 38 -54
Yankees89.1 72.9 835 740 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% -5.9 -24 47
Rays87.1 74.9 707 640 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% -8.9 -95 -9
Blue Jays74.1 87.9 693 737 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.9 -62 9
Orioles70.1 91.9 723 813 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 4.1 110 28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins85.7 76.3 752 715 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% -8.3 -29 44
White Sox84.5 77.5 735 711 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% -3.5 -17 7
Tigers84.0 78.0 727 712 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 3.0 -24 -31
Indians73.9 88.1 728 802 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 4.9 82 50
Royals66.9 95.1 678 815 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% -0.1 2 -30
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers89.2 72.8 746 673 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% -0.8 -41 -14
Athletics82.1 79.9 678 667 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 1.1 15 41
Angels77.9 84.1 665 690 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% -2.1 -16 -12
Mariners72.2 89.8 635 703 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 11.2 122 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies96.1 65.9 754 618 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% -0.9 -18 -22
Braves88.5 73.5 754 690 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% -2.5 16 61
Mets76.6 85.4 675 702 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% -2.4 19 50
Marlins77.3 84.7 679 708 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% -2.7 -40 -9
Nationals72.4 89.6 659 733 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 13.4 -51 -141
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals90.2 71.8 746 676 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 4.2 10 35
Brewers87.2 74.8 698 650 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 10.2 -52 -154
Reds85.5 76.5 723 689 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% -5.5 -67 4
Cubs79.3 82.7 742 761 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 4.3 57 -6
Pirates67.7 94.3 671 808 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% -6.3 28 38
Astros65.8 96.2 604 732 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8 -32 -36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies85.9 76.1 768 732 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 2.9 -2 15
Giants84.2 77.8 699 667 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% -7.8 2 84
Dodgers83.3 78.7 677 659 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 3.3 10 -33
Padres81.2 80.8 647 652 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% -8.8 -18 71
Diamondbacks73.8 88.2 690 757 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 3.8 -30 -25

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The calendar has not flipped to 2011, rosters are not set, there are still free agents to sign, pitchers and catchers are yet to report but it is never too early to think about the pennant race.

If you're on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.

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