Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Hot Stove: Does Adrian Beltre Make Sense for the Giants

Adrian Beltre is one of the free agent names that has been linked to the Giants this off season. I don't think that the Giants are serious players in the Beltre bidding but it is worth taking a look if it makes sense.

Taking a gander at Beltre's career numbers what you see is an above average player with the tendency to have a break out superstar caliber seasons. In his non break out years he has averaged 3.34 WAR which is a nice thing to have, with Beltre you have a floor of about 2.5 WAR and upside that can be in the 7+ WAR range.

He is an elite defensive third baseman with a career UZR/150 of 15.3, which has been a constant for him through out his career.

The big questions for Beltre have to do with age and how he will perform if given a big contract. Beltre is no spring chicken with the coming season being his age 32 season and the reports saying that he wants a long term deal so you have to wonder how he will age as most player peak between 27 and 32.

The Red Sox have reportedly offered a 4 year $52 million deal which is probably the baseline if the Giants would need to beat if the wanted him. To have an surplus value Beltre would need to continue to play at 3 to 4 WAR for the length of the contract and while that is possible that leaves little upside and a lot of downside if he slips up at all.

In addition the Giants have to answer the Pablo Sandoval question first. If Pablo is going to be the guy at third then that makes Beltre redundant because Pablo has the similar upside at a much lower cost, he may not be as sure of a thing but if he flames out at least he doesn't kill the budget in the future.

Beltre is most likely not coming to San Francisco, I just don't see Brian Sabean taking the risk and I think it is a smart move. I would really like to see Pablo given another chance and the though of adding another player that will be in his mid 30's for a big money long term deal is not appetizing.

If your on Twitter you should definitely follow the The Crazy Crabbers. If you're not you should really consider joining, lots of good stuff going on there.

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