Monday, September 13, 2010

Playoff Outlook - The Giants after the San Diego Invasion

Suck it San Diego
What a weekend.

Taking 3 out of 4 in the SD Invasion was sublime.

This is a new team. Perhaps even a team of destiny (How else do you explain the 10 game losing streak and current failings of the Padres?).

This is a team that is in a virtual tie for first place in mid-September.

It feels good to write that. To be perfectly honest I was very nervous for these games in San Diego. Nothing good ever happens in San Diego... Until now.

With 18 games remaining the Giants control their own destiny. They have arguably the most favorable schedule of the 3 teams fighting for the NL west title and they are in the pole position. The team has 13 of the final games at home where they are hard to beat.

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds believe that the Giants are the team to beat and they have improved their chances greatly on this road trip.

The simulations show the Giants with a 42.7% chance of winning the division and a 12.9% chance of winning the Wild Card for a total playoff chance of 55.6% of making the playoffs.

They have improved their chances by a staggering 12.8% chance in the last 7 days and the win yesterday was good enough for a 9.3% increase all by itself.

Now 55.6% isn't a lock by any measure (especially with the surging Rockies, seriously do they ever have a bad September?) but it sure is a long way from where they were just 2 weeks ago when they were 6.5 games back in the West and the only hope was the Wild Card.

Go Giants! End that playoff drought.

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