Friday, June 4, 2010

Small Sample Size Fun

John Bowker was dealt a crappy hand. He had a great start to spring training and won the starting Right Fielders position over Nate Schierholtz. Bruce Bochy was talking highly of the kid.

"You can talk about his home runs, but in every at-bat he really showed a lot of discipline," Bochy said. "Every time you put him in there, he did something offensively. He's going to help provide some power."

We should have known that confidence was only skin deep and that as soon as he hit a rough patch he was going to be sent packing.

He really should have come up with a team that understood that you can't really evaluate a player after 12 games started.

Now for some small sample size fun let's look at some other players starts to careers/seasons after 12 starts for comparison:

Player A: 12 GS .192/.246/.288 .534 OPS

Player B: 12 GS .238/.298/.405 .703 OPS

Player C: 12GS .244/.292/.356 .647 OPS

Player D: 12 GS .167/.302/.167 .469 OPS

Player E: 12 GS .244/.289/.244 .533 OPS

Player F: 12 GS .194/.275/.389 .664

Player G: 12 GS .137/.185/.255 .440 OPS

And their identities:
(All are from the first 12 games started of first full season unless otherwise noted)

John Bowker: 12 GS .192/.246/.288 .534 OPS

Pat Burrell: 12 GS .238/.298/.405 .703 OPS (first 12 starts from 2010 season)

Pablo Sandoval: 12GS .244/.292/.356 .647 OPS

Dustin Pedroia: 12 GS .167/.302/.167 .469 OPS

Alex Rodriguez: 12 GS .244/.289/.244 .533 OPS

Ken Griffey Jr.: 12 GS .194/.275/.389 .664

Aaron Rowand: 12 GS .137/.185/.255 .440 OPS (first 12 games started during current slump)
This proves absolutly nothing but does illistrate that you can learn almost nothing from looking at how a player will perform in the majors based on their first 12 games started or for any random 12 game strecth.

Unfortunately the Giants have not learned this lesson. I say it is a good thing that Buster Posey is playing well or he may be the on the bus to Fresno as well.

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