Friday, June 18, 2010

40 Percent Mark Check Up

The 2010 season is 40% done if this were a baseball game we would be in the top of the 4th with one out. There is certainly a lot of baseball left to play but at this point we have learned quite a bit about this team.

Generated 6/18/2010.

At the moment before the days games begin the Giants are 37-28, in third place and 0.5 games out of first place. They are under performing their expected win/loss pathagorean record by two games while tying the Padres for the best run differential in the division.

The big thing that jumps at you from the standings is the Giants record agains teams that are better than .500, this season they have .719 winning percentage against the best teams in the league while manageing a winning percentage of only .424 against the bottom teams. I am not sure what to make of this perhaps they are playing at the level of the competitioin, but they have the best mark in the league against winning teams. That would be good news for the playoffs if this isn't just some anomoly of luck that will even out over the course of the season.

If they maintain the same pace they will be a 92 win team which would hopefully be good enough to get into the playoffs. It would also be the best record that the team has posted since the 100 win team of 2003.

The season has had quite a few ups and downs this season. As you can see from one of my favorite charts the Giants over their last 20 games have played very well adding 8 games between them and a .500 record, but if the past has any perdictive value there will be some more rough patches to make it through up a head.

I have created a companion for this graph as well that tracks all the teams in the division relative to first place.

Any thing above 0 means that the team is in 1st place every thing below is how many games back from 1st they are. There isn't a whole lot of analysis that can come out of this but it is a nice visual representation of the division race.

This years team has had trouble scoring runs so I created some graphs to have a look at how things have played out this season.

The first graph is the runs per scored for each game this season.

The black line is a 5 game moving average and the dotted red line is the season average of 4.3 runs per game.

This is an interesting graph but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot to glean from it. The rise and falls match up pretty close to the peaks and valley's that you can see in the games above .500 graph, but that is to be expected as runs and wins are highly correlated.

The next graph shows the run distribution of runs scored and runs allowed.

This graph is pretty interesting. When you look at the league as a whole the graph will be much more normally distributed with the peak around 5.5 runs but for the Giants this season the magic number has been 6 runs which they have scored 15 times. The next closest is 5 runs with 8 occurances and then 1 and 2 runs each with frequencies of 7. After 6 runs there is a large drop off with only a hand full of really high scoring games. This is a fairly odd distribution as the peak is realitivly far from the average of 4.3 runs.

For the runs allowed the peak is at 2 runs per game and is follows a much more typical distribution. From this you can definitly see how good the Giants pitching has been this season for the most part scoring a lot of runs on this team has not been easy and is a rare occurance.

Checking up on the players:

The piching has been great this season. The staff lead by Lincecum and Cain had dominate stretches. Barry Zito got off to a great start and has pitched very well this season and is having his best season with the Giants. Jonathan Sanchez has to be the best number 4 starter in the league who has really excelled this season and deserves much better than his 5 and 5 record. The one sore spot has been Todd Wellemeyer who is not a very good pitcher away from AT&T park, hopefully his days in the rotation are numbered and the spot will be Madison Bumgarner's for the stretch run.
1Tim Lincecum2672.7783.111492.2763332371061391.2197.43.610.32.86
2Matt Cain2564.6002.051392.166232128652101.0186.
3Barry Zito3272.7783.101387.073313034581391.2307.
4Jonathan Sanchez2755.5002.781381.059292534771551.1486.
5Todd Wellemeyer3135.3755.521158.25336363541781.5008.

Provided by View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2010.

The Giants bullpen has caused a few heart palpatations this season but it is an excellent collection of power arms. Jeremy Affeldt has been a bit of a disapointment this year but his numbers from last year were definitly inflated and were not going to be sustainable. Sergio Romo has had a few pitches that were mistakes that really cost him but other thatn that has been one of the best guys on the staff with his nasty frisbe slider. New comer Santiago Casilla is a flame throwing monster and I am not sure why the A's let him go for nothing. Lastly Brian Wilson has been pure awesome and while he has walked the high wire a few times in his saves he has had a special season.
CLBrian Wilson28201.0002.15271829.12677110412021.2273.112.64.10

Santiago Casilla3011.5000.8713210.161106185101.1615.215.73.00
RPSergio Romo2723.4002.7727026.0189845241570.8851.78.34.80
RPDan Runzler25201.0003.8027023.2201110117211151.5636.58.01.24
RPGuillermo Mota3602.0003.0927123.1228815121411.1571.94.62.40
RPJeremy Affeldt3123.4004.5723221.223121121618951.8006.67.51.13

Provided by View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2010.


There are a few really bright spots in the lineup at this point in the season and a few spots that I want to take a steel scrub brush to so that I never have to see Aaron Rowand swing at a slider that is 4 feet outside again.

The bright spots this season have to be Aubrey Huff who is destroying the ball while playing defense that is much better than adervtised, Juan Uribe who is putting together the best season by a NL short stop, Andres Torres who has figured out how to be awesome and is among the best leadoff hitters in the game right now, Freddy Sanchez who I wasn't sold on but it is easy to see how he won a batting title and he seems to have more paitence this season then he did in the past and finaly Buster Posey who exploded on to the scene in his first few games in the majors.

The not so bright spots this season have been really bad. Aaron Rownad is in a 6 week long slump, Bengie Molina has lost all of hits power and hasn't made up for it with increased ability to get on base and for some reason Mark DeRosa hasn't had surgery on his injured wrist and is clogging up a roster spot. These are not pretty but Bruce Bochy is finally taking these guys out of the lineup on a regular basis.

1CBengie Molina355317816466031701217.258.313.343.65673
21BAubrey Huff33632203767152113633326.305.396.541.937144
32BFreddy Sanchez32269914347001401216.343.404.414.818116
4SSJuan Uribe30632183363111114212337.289.355.500.855122
53BPablo Sandoval2364255367217262722434.282.343.435.778103
6LFMark DeRosa352693918301100916.
7CFAaron Rowand32461832041826231739.224.267.388.65570
8RFNate Schierholtz26571252033811941317.264.345.368.71388
9OFAndres Torres32571883055203319113139.293.395.479.874129
10SSEdgar Renteria332386928301113714.326.372.395.768103
13CEli Whiteside303068121950491515.279.338.529.867124
141BBuster Posey2317648224117035.344.382.484.867127
16LFPat Burrell3311315113025036.355.400.6451.045170
171BTravis Ishikawa*264029684014048.276.364.517.881129

Provided by View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2010.

This ladies and gentlemen this is your 2010 Giants, they have had sucess following their winning formula great pitching followed up with timely hitting. They are in the thick of things and the lineup and offense is starting to come together.

There is still a ways to go but I think that the team has done well over this first stretch of the season and looks to be getting stronger and understanding what the strengths of the team are.

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